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Post by storygordon on Apr 3, 2024 2:10:34 GMT
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Post by storygordon on Apr 3, 2024 3:17:17 GMT
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Post by jerryangel on Apr 3, 2024 11:23:44 GMT
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Post by jerryangel on Apr 3, 2024 11:30:49 GMT
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Post by jerryangel on Apr 3, 2024 11:42:36 GMT
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Marco
Husky4ever
Posts: 2,586
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Post by Marco on Apr 3, 2024 14:40:18 GMT
Moore rates Connecticut better by 1.3 points. Massey has Connecticut by three.
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Post by ismhuskyfan on Apr 3, 2024 16:31:55 GMT
Moore rates Connecticut better by 1.3 points. Massey has Connecticut by three. I’ll take that!!!!!!12!!!!!!
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Post by jerryangel on Apr 4, 2024 0:34:49 GMT
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Post by storygordon on Apr 4, 2024 0:54:37 GMT
If Massey's numbers on O & D are close it's a question of whether Iowa's weak D (#109) can stop UConn's strong O (#4).
Also whether UConn's strong D (#3) can slow down Iowa's strong O (#1)
Iowa beat LSU by 7 playing six for 192 minutes with 5 bench points. UConn beat USC by 7 playing seven for 200 minutes with 11 bench points. I think Ice is much better after the Big East minutes.
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Post by storygordon on Apr 4, 2024 1:21:05 GMT
Ash & KK
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Post by momandapplepie on Apr 4, 2024 16:46:00 GMT
Moore rates Connecticut better by 1.3 points. Massey has Connecticut by three. Don't know what the margin of error is for those predictions but in my mind, anything that is 5 points or less is basically a pick 'em game. I felt that way going into the USC game and feel that way here. JuJu Watkins finished second to Clark in D1 scoring average this year. She got 29 but we still beat USC. I think it we can hold Clark close to her 32 ppg season average we have a good chance at winning. Iowa has a slight edge over us on offense (they are the #1 scoring offense in the country, we are #14) but there is a wide chasm between us and them on defense. UConn is 27th in scoring defense but Iowa is a whopping 314th (out of only 349 D1 teams). If defense does indeed win championships, UConn has a huge advantage there! www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-women/d1/current/team/111
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Post by storygordon on Apr 4, 2024 19:23:33 GMT
Moore rates Connecticut better by 1.3 points. Massey has Connecticut by three. Don't know what the margin of error is for those predictions but in my mind, anything that is 5 points or less is basically a pick 'em game. I felt that way going into the USC game and feel that way here. JuJu Watkins finished second to Clark in D1 scoring average this year. She got 29 but we still beat USC. I think it we can hold Clark close to her 32 ppg season average we have a good chance at winning. Iowa has a slight edge over us on offense (they are the #1 scoring offense in the country, we are #14) but there is a wide chasm between us and them on defense. UConn is 27th in scoring defense but Iowa is a whopping 314th (out of only 349 D1 teams). If defense does indeed win championships, UConn has a huge advantage there! www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-women/d1/current/team/111 The statistical models are valid for assessing past performances, but not considered reliable as forecasting methods. Massey differs from the ncaa stats web presence. Iowa is #1 in offense and #109 on defense. UConn is #4 on offense and #3 on defense. The better view of overall performance may be the Rating number (Iowa @ 8.99 and UConn @ 8.97) or Power (UConn @ 74.07 and Iowa @ 71.72); however those are historic values, not predictors. Your point of it being a toss up seems sound. masseyratings.com/cbw/ncaa-d1/ratings
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Post by momandapplepie on Apr 4, 2024 19:39:24 GMT
The statistical models are valid for assessing past performances, but not considered reliable as forecasting methods. Massey differs from the ncaa stats web presence. Iowa is #1 in offense and #109 on defense. UConn is #4 on offense and #3 on defense. The better view of overall performance may be the Rating number (Iowa @ 8.99 and UConn @ 8.97) or Power (UConn @ 74.07 and Iowa @ 71.72); however those are historic values, not predictors. Your point of it being a toss up seems sound. masseyratings.com/cbw/ncaa-d1/ratingsI just checked Massey's website. It assigns UConn a 55% "win probability". That sure sounds like a forecast to me. ESPN has a feature called "Matchup Predictor" that assigns UConn a 60.5% win probability. That sounds like a forecast to me too. I know those models are based of past performance but is that historical information not then used to project future outcomes? I'm sure their respective sites have disclaimers somewhere about how they are not reliable, their lawyers would insist on that, but if they are not designed to be reliable, what good are they? I thought Massey in particular often predicts final scores that are in the ballpark of the final outcome. Those models should be at peak accuracy too. They have a season's worth of games and data to work with now. You posted that Massey predicted UConn would beat USC 72-65. They had the margin exactly right....the final score was 80-73 UConn.
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Post by ismhuskyfan on Apr 4, 2024 19:57:04 GMT
Leave all the models and statistics alone what I have left is a “good feeling” about the outcome of the matchup between UCONN and Iowa. If the pressure were on anyone I would put that on Iowa. Some believe UCONN shouldn’t even be here but yet here we are. How many of you thought what might have been if our Huskies did not experience the injuries we have? I know I see at least a three-peat in there. Sports analyst won’t say anything until either UCONN wins or not. Here we go folks JTTDBU!!!
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Post by storygordon on Apr 4, 2024 22:08:19 GMT
The statistical models are valid for assessing past performances, but not considered reliable as forecasting methods. Massey differs from the ncaa stats web presence. Iowa is #1 in offense and #109 on defense. UConn is #4 on offense and #3 on defense. The better view of overall performance may be the Rating number (Iowa @ 8.99 and UConn @ 8.97) or Power (UConn @ 74.07 and Iowa @ 71.72); however those are historic values, not predictors. Your point of it being a toss up seems sound. masseyratings.com/cbw/ncaa-d1/ratingsI just checked Massey's website. It assigns UConn a 55% "win probability". That sure sounds like a forecast to me. ESPN has a feature called "Matchup Predictor" that assigns UConn a 60.5% win probability. That sounds like a forecast to me too. I know those models are based of past performance but is that historical information not then used to project future outcomes? I'm sure their respective sites have disclaimers somewhere about how they are not reliable, their lawyers would insist on that, but if they are not designed to be reliable, what good are they? I thought Massey in particular often predicts final scores that are in the ballpark of the final outcome. Those models should be at peak accuracy too. They have a season's worth of games and data to work with now. You posted that Massey predicted UConn would beat USC 72-65. They had the margin exactly right....the final score was 80-73 UConn. "Win probability" is the correct term. but it's not a prediction. It means that, based on performances to date, UConn would win 55 of the next 100 games or, dividing by 5, 11 of the next 20. It's not a prediction because it is an assessment of uncertain outcomes. One can predict flipping a coin will have 50/50 outcomes because there is an element of certainty. Even that requires a large number of events. SC is 80% which means NC State has a 1 in 5 chance of winning. Yes, a large number of final results are close to the estimated spread, but that's due to the effects of the CLT, Central Limit Theorum, which notes that over many events the final result will be near the mean (average) which is often validated due to some players having better score and others less.
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