Duke preview

DD probably follows the Huskies a lot closer than I do. I like his blowout prediction but 18 points sounds like a lot to me. That would be Duke's worst loss of the entire season if it comes to pass. Duke's worst loss so far is a 17-point loss @louisville on 4 Jan. Next worst are South Carolina beating them by 16 in Durham and road losses by 15 at NC State and by 13 at Stanford.

Like DD says at the and, Sweet 16 teams are generally playing their best basketball of the year. That should apply to Duke as well. It does not make sense to me that a team playing its best basketball of the season would at the same time suffer its worst loss of the season. Accordingly, I am going into this game thinking the same as the Syracuse game...hoping for a solid winning margin of around 10 points but more importantly, hoping we make it through to the EE with no more injuries!

ESPN:
No. 7 seed Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 3 UConn Huskies
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, (Region 3 in Portland)

Why UConn will win: The Huskies have three seniors -- Paige Bueckers, Aaliyah Edwards and Nika Muhl -- who have been on this stage (and bigger) before and were on the team last year when UConn was stunned by Ohio State in the Sweet 16. Even if it was to a different opponent, the pain of that loss in this round is still fresh on their minds, only further motivating the Huskies heading into Saturday. Bueckers might be having the best postseason of any player in the nation, and with her well-rounded impact on the game will do whatever it takes to get UConn one step closer to Cleveland. She doesn't have to do it alone, either, with strong starts to postseason play from Edwards and freshman Ashlynn Shade.

Why Duke will win: The Blue Devils boast one of the best defenses in the country, a unit that can cause fits for UConn's offense. They haven't allowed an opponent to score more than 63 points since Feb. 19. While they didn't have a ton of consistent offensive firepower during the regular season, they now have one of the hottest players in the tournament in junior Reigan Richardson, who's averaging 12.4 points per game on the season but scored 25 and 28 points against Richmond and Ohio State, respectively. Duke's prowess on the offensive glass, spurred by freshman Oluchi Okananwa, also gives the Blue Devils an edge over an opponent with a dearth of frontcourt options.

What's the X factor: Syracuse did a good job for the most part of neutralizing UConn's post play. Can Duke do the same? The Blue Devils allow just 23.4 points in the paint per game and have posts Kennedy Brown (6-6) and Camilla Emsbo (6-5) protecting the rim (the team averages 5.6 rejections per game). Edwards is one of the top players left in the tournament, and last time these two programs met in November 2022, she tallied 17 points and 11 rebounds. -- Philippou

Which team will advance?

Adelson: UConn 66, Duke 60
Creme: UConn 70, Duke 56
Pelton: UConn 71, Duke 60
Philippou: UConn 67, Duke 59
Voepel: UConn 79, Duke 65

I think Massey's 10-point prediction is more reasonable than DD's 18. Yet as discussed before, Massey's algorithm has no way to capture the human drama of an elimination game, particularly for seniors facing the end of their college career if they lose. That drama could work both ways...either spurring them on to adrenaline-fueled herculean feats or tightening them up to where they choke like a dog. With even-keeled Kara Lawson leading them I don't think Duke is going to freeze up tomorrow. Plus as I have posted before they will not have the pressure of expectations weighing on them. No one expects them to win so they will be playing with nothing to lose.

Richardson has been Duke's main offense in the tourney. Hope Nika can shut her down without getting into foul trouble!

Opponent breakdown: 7-seed Duke
Navigating Duke's defense will be key for the Huskies to return to the Elite Eight.

Megan Gauer
March 29, 2024
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Photo by Ron Schwane/NCAA Photos via Getty Images
UConn women’s basketball will face 7-seed Duke in the Sweet Sixteen on Saturday afternoon. The Blue Devils are 22-11 on the season and upset 2-seed Ohio State in Columbus in the second round to advance to the regional semifinals.
Duke’s success starts on the defensive end, where its ranks fourth nationally in Her Hoop Stats’ defensive rating. The Blue Devils have held their opponents to an average of fewer than 60 points per game this season, and their defense is particularly strong in the lane where opponents have shot just 38.7 percent on twos this season. They’re also amongst the best shot blocking teams in the country, averaging 5.7 rejections per game.
In the win over Ohio State in the second round, Duke’s dominance down low was particularly critical in getting the win by out-rebounding the Buckeyes 38-20 in the game. The Blue Devils’ offense, while usually not much to talk about, was also the story in the upset. Duke shot 51.1 percent from the floor, its sixth highest mark of the season.
For UConn to advance the Elite Eight, it’ll need to find ways to create offense despite the intensity of Duke’s defense. If they can limit the Blue Devil’s offense as well, they’ll put less pressure on themselves to score.
Names to know
Reigan Richardson: Richardson leads the Blue Devils in scoring on the season, averaging 12.4 points per game. She’s been the catalyst of Duke’s tournament run thus far, scoring 25 points against Richmond in the first round and a career-high 28 points in the upset of Ohio State in the second round. Richardson shot over 55 percent from the floor in both games and added seven rebounds in each as well.
Taina Mair: Mair is second on the team in scoring and also leads the Blue Devils with 3.7 assists per game. The Boston College transfer paces the team with 1.5 steals per game as well.
Keys to the game for the Huskies
Create transition opportunities: Duke averages 16.9 turnovers per game. UConn should look to exploit that by coming out aggressive and disruptive on the defensive end. Not only will turnovers limit Duke’s opportunities to score, but it’ll afford the Huskies easy looks at the basket in transition — which will be otherwise hard to come by against the Blue Devils’ defense.
Take advantage on the perimeter: For as good as Duke’s defense is inside the arc, it has struggled to defend the perimeter this season. Opponents have shot 32 percent from deep against the Blue Devils this seasons, which ranks in the bottom third for 3-point field goal defense. UConn should look to try to take advantage of that by finding opportunities for good looks on the perimeter.
Limit Richardson: The Huskies need to prevent Richardson from duplicating her performances in the first two rounds in Portland. That assignment is likely to fall to Nika Muhl and if she can put on a similar defensive effort to the one that she had against Dyaisha Fair in the second round (while also avoiding foul trouble), UConn should be able to limit Duke’s offense.
Predicted results
Her Hoop Stats gives the Huskies an 80.3 percent chance of defeating Duke, with a predicted final score of 71.2-58.0. UConn will be heavy favorites to advance to advance to the Elite Eight, but will need to find ways to score against the Blue Devils’ defensive pressure to get there.

Maybe, maybe not...  what we do not know is how Massey weight past performances. I have exchanged a few emails with him and would not be surprised if he uses recent performance data more heavily than earlier results. Therde is a good description of his approach in Wikipedia which also incluedes the phrasing, "The Massey ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes." which is another way of saying the past is not a predictor of the future.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Massey

It's interesting that, while predicting winners is not a part of his model, so few "upsets" occur.