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Post by jbb1985 on Mar 17, 2024 19:24:46 GMT
theathletic.com/5345679/2024/03/16/womens-ncaa-tournament-top-25-teams/I like the article's analytical nature and insight. It also places quite easily UConn as the #2 in the country and therefore the 2nd toughest NCAWW Tourney "out". Yet The Athletic (NYT's sports site) in its WCBB Power Rankings has UConn a middling #15. Just behind mid major Gonzaga with a mid-major skewed 30-3 record, albeit Massey has the Zags at 77th hardest SOS. Jeez!
Back to the article. They point out the disjoint between the objective/ analytical sites like Massey, Slingshot, and NET that have UConn #2-#3, whereas the ESPN Bracketology has them #12, NCAA last reveal has them #10, and the Coaches & Writers polls at #10. There were some other commentators that had them back in the low-mid teens ranking. This article points out basic metrics and performances that should overwhelm 3 early Top 5 losses that were mainly on the road, substantial injuries to UConn not yet tempered by healthier Bueckers/ Edwards & now seasoned frosh integrated into UConn scheme, as well as I'll note that UConn would likely beat Texas now as they miss Harmon (big game vs. UConn) but nevertheless Texas w/o Harmon is in discussion for last #1-seed.
Yes, I think UConn may surprise by one additional round achieved this time. Perhaps the Elite Eight (EE), which some brackets need them to beat Texas in a rematch, or possibly even the FF which may mean beating Stanford. Would be tough against Stanfords two bigs, but Tara vs. Geno is often a tougher bout than expected in the past.
We'll shall see.
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Post by storygordon on Mar 17, 2024 22:22:47 GMT
It's important to remember all ranking systems, human or automated, cannot predict upcoming performances, especially considering improving parity. SC's close calls with LSU and TN, both at Greenville, an SC familiar neutral court, are prime examples
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Marco
Husky4ever
Posts: 2,587
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Post by Marco on Mar 17, 2024 22:35:04 GMT
The article also has other interesting results. It says Syracuse is being seeded too high. And that it’s ridiculous that USC is being seeded so much much higher than Utah. When they’re basically ranked just about the same on the analytics.
I also really like this sentence about the pundits and pollsters: And too often, they perceive close games as crucibles of character rather than largely random events.
I know that Gordon will find that last line interesting.
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Marco
Husky4ever
Posts: 2,587
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Post by Marco on Mar 17, 2024 22:42:07 GMT
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Post by Oldfan (Joe) on Mar 18, 2024 16:16:39 GMT
Living out West -watching USC - they are very vulnerable and very inexperienced. UConn has the two ingredients always found in a successful tourney team - exceptional guard play and experienced leadership.
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Post by momandapplepie on Mar 18, 2024 18:53:46 GMT
Analytics are interesting to parse. What else can we use to perform analysis and make predictions? But analytics mean squat once the ball is tossed up. Come game time, the only things that matter are performance and results. In each of our five biggest challenges this year, our performance and results came up woefully short. I'm sure the analytics for at least some of those game predicted a UConn victory too.
Accordingly, I will not feel confident that we can beat a Top 10 team this year until we actually beat a Top 10 team this year. I don't view that as being pessimistic. I view it as being realistic. How can I reasonably expect an outcome that we have yet to achieve this season?
As long as we have Paige in the backcourt and Aaliyah in the post we will have a chance against most teams. But two superstars and three watchers are not going to beat elite competition. We are going to need significant contributions from Nika and four Freshmen if we are going to win it all...or even make the Final Four. Those contributions are going to have to come in the same game too. Possible...but a very tall order and heretofore unachievable this season.
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Post by jbb1985 on Mar 19, 2024 3:26:47 GMT
Yes, fascinating to see USC and Syracuse are way overhanded and likely to fall faster than the conventional wisdom anticipates!
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Marco
Husky4ever
Posts: 2,587
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Post by Marco on Mar 19, 2024 20:00:46 GMT
Yes, fascinating to see USC and Syracuse are way overhanded and likely to fall faster than the conventional wisdom anticipates! I think the Huskies could certainly beat USC. What worries me is how good Watkins is at drawing fouls. That could be a big problem. |
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Post by jbb1985 on Mar 22, 2024 2:12:39 GMT
Analytics are interesting to parse. What else can we use to perform analysis and make predictions? But analytics mean squat once the ball is tossed up. Come game time, the only things that matter are performance and results. In each of our five biggest challenges this year, our performance and results came up woefully short. I'm sure the analytics for at least some of those game predicted a UConn victory too. Accordingly, I will not feel confident that we can beat a Top 10 team this year until we actually beat a Top 10 team this year. I don't view that as being pessimistic. I view it as being realistic. How can I reasonably expect an outcome that we have yet to achieve this season? As long as we have Paige in the backcourt and Aaliyah in the post we will have a chance against most teams. But two superstars and three watchers are not going to beat elite competition. We are going to need significant contributions from Nika and four Freshmen if we are going to win it all...or even make the Final Four. Those contributions are going to have to come in the same game too. Possible...but a very tall order and heretofore unachievable this season. Three of those losses to higher ranked teams were very early hone UConn was a different team and different injuries and Paige not fully back. Three losses of the five were on the road and one neutral. True, until UConn doesn't have a clunker shooting game versus a top team, they could well lose. But they are facing some top teams in later rounds with no deep rounds NCAAW experience that could choke. Plus, teams like USC are young and volatile. Have lost to unranked teams, sometimes at home vs. unranked teams -- so we'll see if UConn can get by OSU (barring a Duke upset), but this time UConn will have 3+ guards ball handlers vs. OSU press, not just one guard, Muhl, when Huskies hammered by OSU press. I'd say OSU toughest team in UConn's bracket, then USC, and then Baylor now that VA Tech loses their 6'6" AA and not as tough with single gunner, Ammore. UConn's path got better with Kitley's ALS tear. Face it, not improbable that OSU could lose and USC could lose before facing UConn. We'll see. |
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Post by momandapplepie on Mar 22, 2024 19:06:36 GMT
Three of those losses to higher ranked teams were very early hone UConn was a different team and different injuries and Paige not fully back. Three losses of the five were on the road and one neutral. True, until UConn doesn't have a clunker shooting game versus a top team, they could well lose. But they are facing some top teams in later rounds with no deep rounds NCAAW experience that could choke. Plus, teams like USC are young and volatile. Have lost to unranked teams, sometimes at home vs. unranked teams -- so we'll see if UConn can get by OSU (barring a Duke upset), but this time UConn will have 3+ guards ball handlers vs. OSU press, not just one guard, Muhl, when Huskies hammered by OSU press. I'd say OSU toughest team in UConn's bracket, then USC, and then Baylor now that VA Tech loses their 6'6" AA and not as tough with single gunner, Ammore. UConn's path got better with Kitley's ALS tear. Face it, not improbable that OSU could lose and USC could lose before facing UConn. We'll see. I think OSU will get past Duke and I like our chances against them. They won the regular season Big Ten title but I feel the conference was down this year. I also note that they got blown out by a mediocre Maryland team in the Big Ten tourney, ending their season with two consecutive losses. Lastly, our returning players will not have forgotten that OSU ended our season last year and should be able to use that for motivation. Yes...I think we can beat OSU. I am a little less confident of our chances against USC. Unlike OSU, the Trojans (an ironic name for female team, but I digress) were a success in probably the toughest conference this season. They are playing well now too, having beaten two consecutive Top 10 teams in convincing fashion during the PAC-12 tourney. Watkins is such a supreme talent that I do not see her shrinking from the bright lights like most freshmen. With Aubrey not available, I don't know we have that can stop her. Nika is too short and if we use Paige we risk foul trouble and it affecting her offensive production. I don't think KK or Ash have the defensive chops to stop JuJu either. With VT now weakened, I think USC has a clear path to the Regional Finals. |
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Post by ismhuskyfan on Mar 23, 2024 3:43:54 GMT
Living out West -watching USC - they are very vulnerable and very inexperienced. UConn has the two ingredients always found in a successful tourney team - exceptional guard play and experienced leadership. I look forward to that potential game between UCONN and USC even though I have picked USC as one of the #1 seeds to fall early. |
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