Big Dance

Likely they would have to beat three. One in their region and two in the FF. Although NC State and Louisville are not invincible. They are the most likely #1s to fall. I think USC and Stanford have a good chance of advancing to the FF. Especially Stanford whoo is likely to get a cupcake regional.

Massey has Baylor at 6, Moore at 11. OK beat them twice.

I posted this earlier and it does not show. I am losing my analytical skills. Yes, it could be three.

One thing to check this year is who plays in the E8. Last year it was 3 #1s, 2 #2s, a #3, #4 and #6 with 3 #1s and a #3 in the FF, a #1 & #3 in the NC. (Assuming I can read.)  

How many of the 3 losses are to each other? NC State played Louisville (once or twice). USC played Stanford.

From Doggydaddy's site:
By PHIL

Last two games

Let’s see how teams in the top 16 have done in the last two games. (I made the list of 16 before the latest reveal)

In the following list the first entry is the team name, the next entry is the record of the last two games, the next entry is the number of points scored relative to expectations and if there is an entry after that it’s the remaining games.

So for example NC State is one of the top four seeds, they were 2-0 in their last two games, and they outscored the opposition by 14 points (combined) more than they were expected to win by.

• South Carolina 2-0 27
• Stanford 2-0 -27
• NC State 2-0 14
• Louisville 2-0 16
• Baylor 2-0 23 Texas Tech
• Iowa State 1-1 -23 West Virginia
• LSU 2-0 -3
• Michigan 1-1 -21
• UConn 2-0 58
• Texas 2-0 18 Kansas Oklahoma State
• Arizona 1-1 -29
• Maryland 1-1 -13
• Tennessee 1-1 12
• Iowa 1-1 -13
• Indiana 0-2 6
• Oklahoma 2-0 21 Oklahoma State Kansas

Let’s start with the elephant in the room. Admittedly, the last two games by UConn were not played against stellar competition. But that’s where the expected margin of victory came in. UConn didn’t beat those two teams by a combined 58 points, they scored 58 points more than they were expected to win by. That’s by far the largest number in the list with South Carolina in second place with 27.

Three of the one seeds won both games and outperformed expectations. Stanford is the only one seed that underperformed expectations and by 27 points which is quite a few. Two of the two seeds Baylor and Texas were undefeated and outperformed expectations. Two of these seeds Michigan and Iowa State split the two games and underperformed by 21 and 23 points respectively.

Among the three seeds, Oklahoma and UConn and LSU were undefeated but only Oklahoma and UConn outperformed expectations, with UConn doing much better than Oklahoma. Arizona split their two games and underperformed expectations by 29 points.

In the four seeds no one was undefeated with Indiana losing both while Tennessee, Maryland, and Notre Dame split both. Maryland and Notre Dame underperformed by 13 points apiece while Tennessee and surprisingly Indiana managed to outperform expectations but by small margins, 12 and six points respectively.

In the latest reveal, they have LSU, Baylor, Michigan and Iowa State as 2 seeds ahead of UConn. LSU did okay winning both games while scoring very close to expectations. Baylor is in decent shape winning both games and outperforming expectations. But both Michigan and Iowa State both lost again and both scored less than expectations by 21 and 23 points respectively.

While UConn was expected to win both games, compared to Michigan and Iowa State UConn was 79 and 81 points better over two games or about 40 per game. UConn has significantly improved relative to Michigan and Iowa State.